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2017最受欢迎ted演讲 ...最受欢迎的演讲的10个TED演讲,第一个居然是……(附视频&演讲稿)

时间:2019-01-06 来源:作文笔 

原标题:TED官方清单:2017年最受欢迎的演讲的10个TED演讲,第一个居然是……(附视频 演讲稿)

TED创始人 Chris Anderson曾经说过“曾经,知识经济中的人说,你要保护如黄金般的知识,这是你唯一的价值。但是,当全球都联系在一起时,游戏规则改变了,每个人都互相关联,一切都会快速发展。当知识传播出去后,会以最快速度到达全球各地,得到反馈,得以传播,而它的潜在价值是无形的。”

近日,TED出了一份官方清单,认定这12个演讲是2017年最受欢迎的演讲,而第一个居然是在年初爆出大新闻的Elon Musk的TED演讲 专访视频。

由于微信公众号视频数量发布的限制,英语演讲军今天主要分享排名前三的视频,其余的请大家自行点击链接打开观看。

1

作为2017年度排名第一的最受欢迎TED演讲,Elon Musk和TED创始人Chris Anderson在2017年4月28日的对话中讨论了Elon在洛杉矶地下修建隧道的新计划、最新款的特斯拉、SpaceX回收火箭、未来移民火星、做事的动机等精彩内容。这是一个信息量很大的采访,我们摘取了他提到的26个信息点给大家。

TED专访Elon Musk对话双语稿

精彩英语演讲整理

Chris Anderson: Elon, hey, welcome back to TED. It"s great to have you here.

Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.

CA: So, in the next half hour or so, we"re going to spend some time exploring your vision for what an exciting future might look like, which I guess makes the first question a little ironic: Why are you boring?

EM: Yeah. I ask myself that frequently. We"re trying to dig a hole under LA, and this is to create the beginning of what will hopefully be a 3D network of tunnels to alleviate congestion. So right now, one of the most soul-destroying things is traffic. It affects people in every part of the world. It takes away so much of your life. It"s horrible. It"s particularly horrible in LA.

CA: I think you"ve brought with you the first visualization that"s been shown of this. Can I show this?

EM: Yeah, absolutely. So this is the first time -- Just to show what we"re talking about. So a couple of key things that are important in having a 3D tunnel network. First of all, you have to be able to integrate the entrance and exit of the tunnel seamlessly into the fabric of the city. So by having an elevator, sort of a car skate, that"s on an elevator, you can integrate the entrance and exits to the tunnel network just by using two parking spaces. And then the car gets on a skate. There"s no speed limit here, so we"re designing this to be able to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.

CA: How much?

EM: 200 kilometers an hour, or about 130 miles per hour. So you should be able to get from, say, Westwood to LAX in six minutes -- five, six minutes.

CA: So possibly, initially done, it"s like on a sort of toll road-type basis.

EM: Yeah.

CA: Which, I guess, alleviates some traffic from the surface streets as well.

EM: So, I don"t know if people noticed it in the video, but there"s no real limit to how many levels of tunnel you can have. You can go much further deep than you can go up. The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings are tall, so you can alleviate any arbitrary level of urban congestion with a 3D tunnel network. This is a very important point. So a key rebuttal to the tunnels is that if you add one layer of tunnels, that will simply alleviate congestion, it will get used up, and then you"ll be back where you started, back with congestion. But you can go to any arbitrary number of tunnels, any number of levels.

CA: But people -- seen traditionally, it"s incredibly expensive to dig, and that would block this idea.

EM: Yeah. Well, they"re right. To give you an example, the LA subway extension, which is -- I think it"s a two-and-a-half mile extension that was just completed for two billion dollars. So it"s roughly a billion dollars a mile to do the subway extension in LA. And this is not the highest utility subway in the world. So yeah, it"s quite difficult to dig tunnels normally. I think we need to have at least a tenfold improvement in the cost per mile of tunneling.

CA: And how could you achieve that?

EM: Actually, if you just do two things, you can get to approximately an order of magnitude improvement, and I think you can go beyond that. So the first thing to do is to cut the tunnel diameter by a factor of two or more. So a single road lane tunnel according to regulations has to be 26 feet, maybe 28 feet in diameter to allow for crashes and emergency vehicles and sufficient ventilation for combustion engine cars. But if you shrink that diameter to what we"re attempting, which is 12 feet, which is plenty to get an electric skate through, you drop the diameter by a factor of two and the cross-sectional area by a factor of four, and the tunneling cost scales with the cross-sectional area.So that"s roughly a half-order of magnitude improvement right there. Then tunneling machines currently tunnel for half the time, then they stop, and then the rest of the time is putting in reinforcements for the tunnel wall. So if you design the machine instead to do continuous tunneling and reinforcing, that will give you a factor of two improvement. Combine that and that"s a factor of eight. Also these machines are far from being at their power or thermal limits, so you can jack up the power to the machine substantially. I think you can get at least a factor of two,maybe a factor of four or five improvement on top of that. So I think there"s a fairly straightforward series of steps to get somewhere in excess of an order of magnitude improvement in the cost per mile, and our target actually is --we"ve got a pet snail called Gary, this is from Gary the snail from "South Park," I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."

So Gary is capable of -- currently he"s capable of going 14 times faster than a tunnel-boring machine.

CA: You want to beat Gary.

EM: We want to beat Gary.

He"s not a patient little fellow, and that will be victory. Victory is beating the snail.

CA: But a lot of people imagining, dreaming about future cities, they imagine that actually the solution is flying cars, drones, etc. You go aboveground. Why isn"t that a better solution? You save all that tunneling cost.

EM: Right. I"m in favor of flying things. Obviously, I do rockets, so I like things that fly. This is not some inherent bias against flying things, but there is a challenge with flying cars in that they"ll be quite noisy, the wind force generated will be very high. Let"s just say that if something"s flying over your head, a whole bunch of flying cars going all over the place, that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.

You don"t think to yourself, "Well, I feel better about today." You"re thinking, "Did they service their hubcap, or is it going to come off and guillotine me?" Things like that.

CA: So you"ve got this vision of future cities with these rich, 3D networks of tunnels underneath. Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop? Could you apply these tunnels to use for this Hyperloop idea you released a few years ago.

EM: Yeah, so we"ve been sort of puttering around with the Hyperloop stuff for a while. We built a Hyperloop test track adjacent to SpaceX, just for a student competition, to encourage innovative ideas in transport. And it actually ends up being the biggest vacuum chamber in the world after the Large Hadron Collider, by volume. So it was quite fun to do that, but it was kind of a hobby thing, and then we think we might -- so we"ve built a little pusher car to push the student pods, but we"re going to try seeing how fast we can make the pusher go if it"s not pushing something. So we"re cautiously optimistic we"ll be able to be faster than the world"s fastest bullet train even in a .8-mile stretch.

CA: Whoa. Good brakes.

EM: Yeah, I mean, it"s -- yeah. It"s either going to smash into tiny pieces or go quite fast.

CA: But you can picture, then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel running quite long distances.

EM: Exactly. And looking at tunneling technology, it turns out that in order to make a tunnel, you have to -- In order to seal against the water table, you"ve got to typically design a tunnel wall to be good to about five or six atmospheres.So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere, or near-vacuum. So actually, it sort of turns out that automatically, if you build a tunnel that is good enough to resist the water table, it is automatically capable of holding vacuum.

CA: Huh.

EM: So, yeah.

CA: And so you could actually picture, what kind of length tunnel is in Elon"s future to running Hyperloop?

EM: I think there"s no real length limit. You could dig as much as you want. I think if you were to do something like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop, I think you"d probably want to go underground the entire way because it"s a high-density area. You"re going under a lot of buildings and houses, and if you go deep enough, you cannot detect the tunnel.Sometimes people think, well, it"s going to be pretty annoying to have a tunnel dug under my house. Like, if that tunnel is dug more than about three or four tunnel diameters beneath your house, you will not be able to detect it being dug at all. In fact, if you"re able to detect the tunnel being dug, whatever device you are using, you can get a lot of money for that device from the Israeli military, who is trying to detect tunnels from Hamas, and from the US Customs and Border patrol that try and detect drug tunnels. So the reality is that earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations, and once the tunnel depth is below a certain level, it is undetectable. Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic instrument, you might be able to detect it.

CA: So you"ve started a new company to do this called The Boring Company. Very nice. Very funny.

EM: What"s funny about that?

CA: How much of your time is this?

EM: It"s maybe ... two or three percent.

CA: You"ve bought a hobby. This is what an Elon Musk hobby looks like.

EM: I mean, it really is, like -- This is basically interns and people doing it part time. We bought some second-hand machinery. It"s kind of puttering along, but it"s making good progress, so --

CA: So an even bigger part of your time is being spent on electrifying cars and transport through Tesla. Is one of the motivations for the tunneling project the realization that actually, in a world where cars are electric and where they"re self-driving, there may end up being more cars on the roads on any given hour than there are now?

EM: Yeah, exactly. A lot of people think that when you make cars autonomous, they"ll be able to go faster and that will alleviate congestion. And to some degree that will be true, but once you have shared autonomy where it"s much cheaper to go by car and you can go point to point, the affordability of going in a car will be better than that of a bus.Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket. So the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy, and actually traffic will get far worse.

CA: You started Tesla with the goal of persuading the world that electrification was the future of cars, and a few years ago, people were laughing at you. Now, not so much.

EM: OK.

I don"t know. I don"t know.

CA: But isn"t it true that pretty much every auto manufacturer has announced serious electrification plans for the short- to medium-term future?

EM: Yeah. Yeah. I think almost every automaker has some electric vehicle program. They vary in seriousness. Some are very serious about transitioning entirely to electric, and some are just dabbling in it. And some, amazingly, are still pursuing fuel cells, but I think that won"t last much longer.

CA: But isn"t there a sense, though, Elon, where you can now just declare victory and say, you know, "We did it." Let the world electrify, and you go on and focus on other stuff?

EM: Yeah. I intend to stay with Tesla as far into the future as I can imagine, and there are a lot of exciting things that we have coming. Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon. We"ll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.

CA: OK, we"re going to come to this. So Model 3, it"s supposed to be coming in July-ish.

EM: Yeah, it"s looking quite good for starting production in July.

CA: Wow. One of the things that people are so excited about is the fact that it"s got autopilot. And you put out this video a while back showing what that technology would look like.

EM: Yeah.

CA: There"s obviously autopilot in Model S right now. What are we seeing here?

EM: Yeah, so this is using only cameras and GPS. So there"s no LIDAR or radar being used here. This is just using passive optical, which is essentially what a person uses. The whole road system is meant to be navigated with passive optical, or cameras, and so once you solve cameras or vision, then autonomy is solved. If you don"t solve vision, it"s not solved. So that"s why our focus is so heavily on having a vision neural net that"s very effective for road conditions.

CA: Right. Many other people are going the LIDAR route. You want cameras plus radar is most of it.

EM: You can absolutely be superhuman with just cameras. Like, you can probably do it ten times better than humans would, just cameras.

CA: So the new cars being sold right now have eight cameras in them. They can"t yet do what that showed. When will they be able to?

EM: I think we"re still on track for being able to go cross-country from LA to New York by the end of the year, fully autonomous.

CA: OK, so by the end of the year, you"re saying, someone"s going to sit in a Tesla without touching the steering wheel, tap in "New York," off it goes.

EM: Yeah.

CA: Won"t ever have to touch the wheel -- by the end of 2017.

EM: Yeah. Essentially, November or December of this year, we should be able to go all the way from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey.

CA: Amazing. But part of that is possible because you"ve already got a fleet of Teslas driving all these roads. You"re accumulating a huge amount of data of that national road system.

EM: Yes, but the thing that will be interesting is that I"m actually fairly confident it will be able to do that route even if you change the route dynamically. So, it"s fairly easy -- If you say I"m going to be really good at one specific route, that"s one thing, but it should be able to go, really be very good, certainly once you enter a highway, to go anywhere on the highway system in a given country. So it"s not sort of limited to LA to New York. We could change it and make it Seattle-Florida, that day, in real time. So you were going from LA to New York. Now go from LA to Toronto.

CA: So leaving aside regulation for a second, in terms of the technology alone, the time when someone will be able to buy one of your cars and literally just take the hands off the wheel and go to sleep and wake up and find that they"ve arrived, how far away is that, to do that safely?

EM: I think that"s about two years. So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work say 99.9 percent of the time,because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times, then you"re probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep. You shouldn"t be, certainly.

It"s never going to be perfect. No system is going to be perfect, but if you say it"s perhaps -- the car is unlikely to crash in a hundred lifetimes, or a thousand lifetimes, then people are like, OK, wow, if I were to live a thousand lives,I would still most likely never experience a crash, then that"s probably OK.

CA: To sleep. I guess the big concern of yours is that people may actually get seduced too early to think that this is safe, and that you"ll have some horrible incident happen that puts things back.

EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system is likely to at least mitigate the crash, except in rare circumstances. The thing to appreciate about vehicle safety is this is probabilistic. I mean, there"s some chance that any time a human driver gets in a car, that they will have an accident that is their fault. It"s never zero. So really the key threshold for autonomy is how much better does autonomy need to be than a person before you can rely on it?

CA: But once you get literally safe hands-off driving, the power to disrupt the whole industry seems massive,because at that point you"ve spoken of people being able to buy a car, drops you off at work, and then you let it goand provide a sort of Uber-like service to other people, earn you money, maybe even cover the cost of your lease of that car, so you can kind of get a car for free. Is that really likely?

EM: Yeah. Absolutely this is what will happen. So there will be a shared autonomy fleet where you buy your car and you can choose to use that car exclusively, you could choose to have it be used only by friends and family, only by other drivers who are rated five star, you can choose to share it sometimes but not other times. That"s 100 percent what will occur. It"s just a question of when.

CA: Wow. So you mentioned the Semi and I think you"re planning to announce this in September, but I"m curious whether there"s anything you could show us today?

EM: I will show you a teaser shot of the truck.

It"s alive.

CA: OK.

EM: That"s definitely a case where we want to be cautious about the autonomy features. Yeah.

CA: We can"t see that much of it, but it doesn"t look like just a little friendly neighborhood truck. It looks kind of badass. What sort of semi is this?

EM: So this is a heavy duty, long-range semitruck. So it"s the highest weight capability and with long range. So essentially it"s meant to alleviate the heavy-duty trucking loads. And this is something which people do not today think is possible. They think the truck doesn"t have enough power or it doesn"t have enough range, and then with the Tesla Semi we want to show that no, an electric truck actually can out-torque any diesel semi. And if you had a tug-of-war competition, the Tesla Semi will tug the diesel semi uphill.

CA: That"s pretty cool. And short term, these aren"t driverless. These are going to be trucks that truck drivers want to drive.

EM: Yes. So what will be really fun about this is you have a flat torque RPM curve with an electric motor, whereas with a diesel motor or any kind of internal combustion engine car, you"ve got a torque RPM curve that looks like a hill.So this will be a very spry truck. You can drive this around like a sports car. There"s no gears. It"s, like, single speed.

CA: There"s a great movie to be made here somewhere. I don"t know what it is and I don"t know that it ends well, but it"s a great movie.

EM: It"s quite bizarre test-driving. When I was driving the test prototype for the first truck. It"s really weird, because you"re driving around and you"re just so nimble, and you"re in this giant truck.

CA: Wait, you"ve already driven a prototype?

EM: Yeah, I drove it around the parking lot, and I was like, this is crazy.

CA: Wow. This is no vaporware.

EM: It"s just like, driving this giant truck and making these mad maneuvers.

CA: This is cool. OK, from a really badass picture to a kind of less badass picture. This is just a cute house from "Desperate Housewives" or something. What on earth is going on here?

EM: Well, this illustrates the picture of the future that I think is how things will evolve. You"ve got an electric car in the driveway. If you look in between the electric car and the house, there are actually three Powerwalls stacked up against the side of the house, and then that house roof is a solar roof. So that"s an actual solar glass roof.

CA: OK.

EM: That"s a picture of a real -- well, admittedly, it"s a real fake house. That"s a real fake house.

CA: So these roof tiles, some of them have in them basically solar power, the ability to --

EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles where you can adjust the texture and the color to a very fine-grained level, and then there"s sort of microlouvers in the glass, such that when you"re looking at the roof from street level or close to street level, all the tiles look the same whether there is a solar cell behind it or not. So you have an even color from the ground level. If you were to look at it from a helicopter, you would be actually able to look through and see that some of the glass tiles have a solar cell behind them and some do not. You can"t tell from street level.

CA: You put them in the ones that are likely to see a lot of sun, and that makes these roofs super affordable, right?They"re not that much more expensive than just tiling the roof.

EM: Yeah. We"re very confident that the cost of the roof plus the cost of electricity -- A solar glass roof will be less than the cost of a normal roof plus the cost of electricity. So in other words, this will be economically a no-brainer, we think it will look great, and it will last -- We thought about having the warranty be infinity, but then people thought, well, that might sound like were just talking rubbish, but actually this is toughened glass. Well after the house has collapsed and there"s nothing there, the glass tiles will still be there.

CA: I mean, this is cool. So you"re rolling this out in a couple week"s time, I think, with four different roofing types.

EM: Yeah, we"re starting off with two, two initially, and the second two will be introduced early next year.

CA: And what"s the scale of ambition here? How many houses do you believe could end up having this type of roofing?

EM: I think eventually almost all houses will have a solar roof. The thing is to consider the time scale here to be probably on the order of 40 or 50 years. So on average, a roof is replaced every 20 to 25 years. But you don"t start replacing all roofs immediately. But eventually, if you say were to fast-forward to say 15 years from now, it will be unusual to have a roof that does not have solar.

CA: Is there a mental model thing that people don"t get here that because of the shift in the cost, the economics of solar power, most houses actually have enough sunlight on their roof pretty much to power all of their needs. If you could capture the power, it could pretty much power all their needs. You could go off-grid, kind of.

EM: It depends on where you are and what the house size is relative to the roof area, but it"s a fair statement to saythat most houses in the US have enough roof area to power all the needs of the house.

CA: So the key to the economics of the cars, the Semi, of these houses is the falling price of lithium-ion batteries,which you"ve made a huge bet on as Tesla. In many ways, that"s almost the core competency. And you"ve decidedthat to really, like, own that competency, you just have to build the world"s largest manufacturing plant to double the world"s supply of lithium-ion batteries, with this guy. What is this?

EM: Yeah, so that"s the Gigafactory, progress so far on the Gigafactory. Eventually, you can sort of roughly see that there"s sort of a diamond shape overall, and when it"s fully done, it"ll look like a giant diamond, or that"s the idea behind it, and it"s aligned on true north. It"s a small detail.

CA: And capable of producing, eventually, like a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries a year.

EM: A hundred gigawatt hours. We think probably more, but yeah.

CA: And they"re actually being produced right now.

EM: They"re in production already. CA: You guys put out this video. I mean, is that speeded up?

EM: That"s the slowed down version.

CA: How fast does it actually go?

EM: Well, when it"s running at full speed, you can"t actually see the cells without a strobe light. It"s just blur.

CA: One of your core ideas, Elon, about what makes an exciting future is a future where we no longer feel guilty about energy. Help us picture this. How many Gigafactories, if you like, does it take to get us there?

EM: It"s about a hundred, roughly. It"s not 10, it"s not a thousand. Most likely a hundred.

CA: See, I find this amazing. You can picture what it would take to move the world off this vast fossil fuel thing. It"s like you"re building one, it costs five billion dollars, or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars. Like, it"s kind of cool that you can picture that project. And you"re planning to do, at Tesla -- announce another two this year.

EM: I think we"ll announce locations for somewhere between two and four Gigafactories later this year. Yeah, probably four.

CA: Whoa.

(Applause) No more teasing from you for here? Like -- where, continent? You can say no.

EM: We need to address a global market.

CA: OK.

This is cool. I think we should talk for -- Actually, double mark it. I"m going to ask you one question about politics, only one. I"m kind of sick of politics, but I do want to ask you this. You"re on a body now giving advice to a guy --

EM: Who?

CA: Who has said he doesn"t really believe in climate change, and there"s a lot of people out there who think you shouldn"t be doing that. They"d like you to walk away from that. What would you say to them?

EM: Well, I think that first of all, I"m just on two advisory councils where the format consists of going around the roomand asking people"s opinion on things, and so there"s like a meeting every month or two. That"s the sum total of my contribution. But I think to the degree that there are people in the room who are arguing in favor of doing something about climate change, or social issues, I"ve used the meetings I"ve had thus far to argue in favor of immigration and in favor of climate change.

And if I hadn"t done that, that wasn"t on the agenda before. So maybe nothing will happen, but at least the words were said.

CA: OK.

So let"s talk SpaceX and Mars. Last time you were here, you spoke about what seemed like a kind of incredibly ambitious dream to develop rockets that were actually reusable. And you"ve only gone and done it.

EM: Finally. It took a long time.

CA: Talk us through this. What are we looking at here?

EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters coming back from very high and fast in space. So just delivered the upper stage at high velocity. I think this might have been at sort of Mach 7 or so, delivery of the upper stage.

CA: So that was a sped-up --

EM: That was the slowed down version.

CA: I thought that was the sped-up version. But I mean, that"s amazing, and several of these failed before you finally figured out how to do it, but now you"ve done this, what, five or six times?

EM: We"re at eight or nine.

CA: And for the first time, you"ve actually reflown one of the rockets that landed.

EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster and then prepped it for flight again and flew it again, so it"s the first reflight of an orbital booster where that reflight is relevant. So it"s important to appreciate that reusability is only relevant if it is rapid and complete. So like an aircraft or a car, the reusability is rapid and complete. You do not send your aircraft to Boeing in-between flights.

CA: Right. So this is allowing you to dream of this really ambitious idea of sending many, many, many people to Marsin, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess.

EM: Yeah.

CA: And you"ve designed this outrageous rocket to do it. Help us understand the scale of this thing.

EM: Well, visually you can see that"s a person. Yeah, and that"s the vehicle.

CA: So if that was a skyscraper, that"s like, did I read that, a 40-story skyscraper?

EM: Probably a little more, yeah. The thrust level of this is really -- This configuration is about four times the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.

CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest rocket humanity ever created before.

EM: Yeah. Yeah.

CA: As one does. EM: Yeah.

In units of 747, a 747 is only about a quarter of a million pounds of thrust, so for every 10 million pounds of thrust,there"s 40 747s. So this would be the thrust equivalent of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.

CA: And so even with a machine designed to escape Earth"s gravity, I think you told me last time this thing could actually take a fully loaded 747, people, cargo, everything, into orbit.

EM: Exactly. This can take a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel, maximum passengers, maximum cargo on the 747 -- this can take it as cargo.

CA: So based on this, you presented recently this Interplanetary Transport System which is visualized this way. This is a scene you picture in, what, 30 years time? 20 years time? People walking into this rocket.

EM: I"m hopeful it"s sort of an eight- to 10-year time frame. Aspirationally, that"s our target. Our internal targets are more aggressive, but I think --

CA: OK.

EM: While vehicle seems quite large and is large by comparison with other rockets, I think the future spacecraft will make this look like a rowboat. The future spaceships will be truly enormous.

CA: Why, Elon? Why do we need to build a city on Mars with a million people on it in your lifetime, which I think is kind of what you"ve said you"d love to do?

EM: I think it"s important to have a future that is inspiring and appealing. I just think there have to be reasons that you get up in the morning and you want to live. Like, why do you want to live? What"s the point? What inspires you? What do you love about the future? And if we"re not out there, if the future does not include being out there among the stars and being a multiplanet species, I find that it"s incredibly depressing if that"s not the future that we"re going to have.

CA: People want to position this as an either or, that there are so many desperate things happening on the planet now from climate to poverty to, you know, you pick your issue. And this feels like a distraction. You shouldn"t be thinking about this. You should be solving what"s here and now. And to be fair, you"ve done a fair old bit to actually do that with your work on sustainable energy. But why not just do that?

EM: I think there"s -- I look at the future from the standpoint of probabilities. It"s like a branching stream of probabilities, and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing. I may introduce something new to the probability stream. Sustainable energy will happen no matter what. If there was no Tesla, if Tesla never existed, it would have to happen out of necessity. It"s tautological. If you don"t have sustainable energy, it means you have unsustainable energy. Eventually you will run out, and the laws of economics will drive civilization towards sustainable energy, inevitably. The fundamental value of a company like Tesla is the degree to which it accelerates the advent of sustainable energy, faster than it would otherwise occur.

So when I think, like, what is the fundamental good of a company like Tesla, I would say, hopefully, if it accelerated that by a decade, potentially more than a decade, that would be quite a good thing to occur. That"s what I consider to be the fundamental aspirational good of Tesla.

Then there"s becoming a multiplanet species and space-faring civilization. This is not inevitable. It"s very important to appreciate this is not inevitable. The sustainable energy future I think is largely inevitable, but being a space-faring civilization is definitely not inevitable. If you look at the progress in space, in 1969 you were able to send somebody to the moon. 1969. Then we had the Space Shuttle. The Space Shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit. Then the Space Shuttle retired, and the United States could take no one to orbit. So that"s the trend. The trend is like down to nothing. People are mistaken when they think that technology just automatically improves. It does not automatically improve. It only improves if a lot of people work very hard to make it better, and actually it will, I think, by itself degrade, actually. You look at great civilizations like Ancient Egypt, and they were able to make the pyramids,and they forgot how to do that. And then the Romans, they built these incredible aqueducts. They forgot how to do it.

CA: Elon, it almost seems, listening to you and looking at the different things you"ve done, that you"ve got this unique double motivation on everything that I find so interesting. One is this desire to work for humanity"s long-term good.The other is the desire to do something exciting. And often it feels like you feel like you need the one to drive the other. With Tesla, you want to have sustainable energy, so you made these super sexy, exciting cars to do it. Solar energy, we need to get there, so we need to make these beautiful roofs. We haven"t even spoken about your newest thing, which we don"t have time to do, but you want to save humanity from bad AI, and so you"re going to create this really cool brain-machine interface to give us all infinite memory and telepathy and so forth. And on Mars, it feels like what you"re saying is, yeah, we need to save humanity and have a backup plan, but also we need to inspire humanity, and this is a way to inspire.

EM: I think the value of beauty and inspiration is very much underrated, no question. But I want to be clear. I"m not trying to be anyone"s savior. That is not the -- I"m just trying to think about the future and not be sad.

CA: Beautiful statement. I think everyone here would agree that it is not -- None of this is going to happen inevitably.The fact that in your mind, you dream this stuff, you dream stuff that no one else would dare dream, or no one else would be capable of dreaming at the level of complexity that you do. The fact that you do that, Elon Musk, is a really remarkable thing. Thank you for helping us all to dream a bit bigger.

EM: But you"ll tell me if it ever starts getting genuinely insane, right?

CA: Thank you, Elon Musk. That was really, really fantastic. That was really fantastic.

Chris Anderson (CA): 伊隆,欢迎回到TED来。很高兴你能来。

Elon Musk (EM): 感谢邀请。

1 你为什么无聊?Why are you boring?

CA:嗯,在接下来的半个小时,我们会花点时间来探索一下你所构想的激动人心的未来,这可能会让我的第一个问题听起来有点讽刺:为什么你觉得无聊?

EM:是呀。我经常这么问自己。我们打算挖一条隧道穿过洛杉矶,这是我们计划的开始我们有希望打造一个地下三维管道来缓解交通阻塞。目前来看,最让人精神疲惫的事情之一就是堵车。这影响世界上每个角落的人。它从你生命中拿走了太多时间。太可怕了。在洛杉矶尤其可怕。(笑声)

CA:我想你带来了这项工程演示视频的首次公开展示。我能播放么?

EM:可以,当然可以。这是第一次——就展示下我们正在聊的。有几个关键的点对于构建3D隧道特别重要。首先,你必须能够整合隧道的入口和出口无缝的整合到城市交通里。通过利用电梯,一个给汽车用的滑板,滑板放在电梯里,我们就可以将隧道的入口和出口跟公路对接起来代价仅仅是两个停车位的面积。然后汽车就在滑板上,隧道里没有限速,所以我们设计时速是每小时200公里。

CA:多少?EM:每小时200公里,也就是每小时130英里。所以打个比方,如果你从Westwood到洛杉矶机场只需要五到六分钟。(掌声)

CA:所以有可能,完工之后,有点类似收费高速路的模式。

EM:对的。

CA:我猜这将也会缓解地面交通的压力。

EM:嗯,我不知道大家是否注意到视频中的一个细节,实际上我们可以继续增加隧道的层数。往下挖比往上开拓要容易得多。实际上最深的矿井比最高的摩天大楼要长多了,所以我们可以利用这种立体隧道网解决任意级别的交通拥堵问题。这是个非常重要的点。所以这种隧道的一个争论点是如果我们加了一层隧道,那么可以轻微缓解交通拥堵,但是很快拥堵又起来了,这个时候大家又回到原点,又开始拥堵。但是现在我们可以增加任意数量的隧道,没有层数限制。

CA:但是人们——传统上看到的是,隧道挖起来特别烧钱,这回导致这个想法搁浅。

EM:对的。嗯,他们是对的。我来举一个例子,洛杉矶地铁线扩建,大概——我想大概是扩建了2.5英里那么长工程花费达到了20亿美元。所以在洛杉矶地区建立隧道成本大概10亿一英里。而且这还不是世界上最昂贵的通勤地铁线路。所以是的,通常情况下挖隧道很难。我想我们必须能够至少将隧道的建设成本降低十倍以上才行。

CA:那么你怎么做到呢?

EM:实际上,如果你做两件事情,就已经可以得到接近一个数量级的改进,而且我觉得可以做到更多。第一件事是减少隧道的直径缩减到正常的二分之一。法律规定一条隧的宽度至少26英尺,可能是28英尺来避免车辆剐蹭到隧道,允许救护车通过同时为内燃机车的发动机留足充分的通风机制。但是如果你将直径缩减到我们目前尝试的那样,只有12英尺,这个宽度已经足够一个汽车滑板通过,这样你就将直径减少了两倍这样纵切面就减少了四倍,而隧道建设成本跟隧道的纵切面积有直接关系。所以这一条就缩减了大概半个数量级的成本。目前我们在挖隧道的流程是,挖掘机挖一段时间就停下来,等着隧道的阻隔墙加固完成,再继续。所以如果你能够重新设计机器,能够同步进行挖掘和加固,那么能得到两倍的改进。加起来就是8倍的改进了。而且这些机器还远远没有达到热力学定律的极限,所以你可以加大机器的马力。我觉得至少能够再提高一倍。或许能够在之前的基础上再提高四五倍。所以我觉得现在已经有了比较明确的步骤在缩减单位长度成本上能够做到一个数量级的改进,而我们的目标实际上是——我们做了一个玩具蜗牛叫Gary,名字来自《南方公园》,我是说,抱歉,来自《海绵宝宝》。(笑声)现在Gary能够做到——现在它能够做到比现在慢吞吞的隧道机器快14倍以上。(笑声)

CA:你希望超过Gary。

EM:“我们”想要超过Gary。(笑声)他不是一个安静的小随从,会迎来胜利的。胜利就是打败这个蜗牛。

2 为什么飞行汽车不是一个更好的解决方案?Why aren’t flying cars a better solution?

CA:但是很多人梦想着,在构想未来城市的时候,他们想的实际上是飞行汽车,无人机,等等。人们在地面上活动。为什么那不是更好的方法?这样就完全没有挖隧道的开销了。

EM:对。我很喜欢会飞的东西。很显然的,我研究火箭,我喜欢会飞的东西。虽然我没有任何对于飞行物的偏见,但是飞行汽车这个概念有个问题就是一定会很吵,产生的风也会非常大。就简单想象一下如果有什么东西飞过你的头顶,很多飞行汽车从你头上穿过,这可不是能让你减少焦虑的场面。(笑声)你肯定不会想,“嗯,我今天感觉不错。”你会想,“这些车轮胎都拧紧了么”“会不会掉下来砸烂我的头?”类似这样。

3 这些隧道将如何与超级回路相结合?How will these tunnels tie in with Hyperloop?

CA:所以你对未来的构想就是城市地下布满这样的立体交通隧道。这跟Hyperloop有关联么?你是不是可以将隧道用在几年前你公开出来的Hyperloop的想法上。

EM:对,我们在Hyperloop这件事情上已经游手好闲了一段时间。我们在SpaceX旁边建立了一个Hyperloop实验轨道用来做学生竞赛用,用来激励在交通上的创新想法。实际上,我们最后做出来了世界上最大的真空管道仅次于LHC对撞机,从规模上说。这件事情特别有意思,不过只算是业余爱好,后来我们想或许——所以我们建造了一个推进器来推进学生做的胶囊仓,而我们打算试试看推进器如果没有载重自己能够推进多快。我们谨慎乐观的认为我们将会比目前世界上最快的子弹头列车更快即使在0.8英里的长度上。

CA:哇,刹车不错嘛。

EM:对,我是说,它——对。它没有直接撞成碎片,但是速度已经非常快了。

CA:但是你已经可以构想以后,Hyperloop在隧道里,做长距离运输。

EM:千真万确。看看现在的隧道构造技术,事实上为了挖一条隧道,你必须——为了能够隔绝地下水渗透,你通常需要将隧道壁设计足够硬能够承受五到六个大气压。而真空状态只需要承受一个大气压,或者近似真空。所以实际上,基本上是自然而然地,如果你构造一条隧道足够承受地下水的压力,保持真空就变成自然而然的事情。

CA:呃。

EM:所以,对。

CA:所以你实际上可以构想,在你构想的未来里,Hyperloop隧道可以长到什么规模?

EM:我觉得没有任何长度的限制。你可以想要挖多远就挖多远。我觉得如果你想要造Hyperloop,比如从华盛顿到纽约,我觉得你可能更愿意全程都从地下穿过因为地面建筑太密集了。你会从地下穿过很多大楼和房屋,如果你挖的足够深,在地表是探测不到隧道的。有时候人们会想,嗯,那可够恼人的如果在我房子下面挖隧道的话比如,如果一条隧道是在你家地下三到四个隧道直径的深度挖的话,你就根本探测不出来了。实际上如果你能够探测到,不管你用什么设备,你都可以用这个设备从以色列军方那里赚到一大笔钱,他们一直在尝试探测哈马斯组织挖的隧道,美国海关和边防也都希望探测毒贩的隧道。所以实际上,地球吸收震动的能力非常的好,一旦隧道建设达到一定深度,就无法探测到了。或许你拿一个非常灵敏的地震探测仪,可以有机会探测到。

CA:所以你开了一家新公司做这个公司叫“无聊的公司”。非常棒,挺会玩。(笑声)

EM:有什么好笑的?(笑声)

CA:这个大概花费你多少时间?

EM:大概有……百分之二三的样子。

CA:你带来了一个业余爱好。这就是Elon Musk的业余爱好的样子。(笑声)

EM:我是说,实际上是——基本上是实习生和一些兼职职工在做。我们买了一些二手设备。这个一开始也差不多是随便玩玩,但是没想到进度喜人,所以——

4 特斯拉发生了什么事?What’s happening at Tesla?

CA:所以你的时间中大部分投入到了电动汽车,也就是特斯拉上。隧道项目的动机中有没有服务于特斯拉的成分,未来世界中汽车都是电动,都是自动驾驶的,最终可能是路面上有更多汽车比现在的任何时刻都要多?

EM:对,完全正确。很多人认为当汽车开始自动驾驶,他们能跑得更快,并缓解交通压力。在某种程度上是真的,但是一旦我们开始共享汽车,叫个计程车就会很便宜于是你到哪儿都可以叫车,叫得起出租车要比等公交好得多。那时候,叫车估计比公交车还便宜。所以路面上汽车等到共享自动驾驶汽车的时候就会更多,那个时候交通会更拥挤。

CA:你创办特斯拉的时候希望向世界证明电动汽车是汽车行业的未来,几年前,人们还嘲笑你。现在,没有那么多人了。

EM:好。(笑声)我不知道,我不知道。

CA:但是现在差不多每个汽车厂商都认真地宣布了短期或中期的电动汽车计划?

EM:对,对。我想基本每一个汽车厂商都有电动车计划了。但是对待的认真程度不同。有一些非常坚定,要全面电动化,有一些仅仅是试水看看。还有一些,挺有意思的还坚持化石燃料,但是我觉得他们长久不了了。

CA:但是Elon,现在不就已经是,你可以宣布胜利,说,“我们做到了。”让世界都开始转向汽车电动化,你可以将重心转入其它行业了?

EM:对。我打算在可以预见的未来继续主导特斯拉的发展,也有很多激动人心的事情我们在做。很显然,特斯拉Model 3就要发布了。我们也要宣布特斯拉半挂卡车。

CA:好的,我们就要聊到这个了。所以Model 3计划时在七月左右发布。

EM:是,7月份发布新东西感觉很好。

CA:哇哦。人们非常兴奋的一件事情是它将能够自动驾驶。你在不久之前放出来这段视频展示了这项技术看起来什么样子。

EM:对的。

CA:现在Model S已经有了自动驾驶。这段视频我们看出来什么?

EM:对的,这段视频里只用了GPS和可见光摄像头。注意这里并没有使用激光雷达。这里仅仅是用了被动光学传感器,跟我们人类使用的差不多。整个道路系统的导航仅仅使用被动光学,也就是摄像头所以当你能够(仅仅)用摄像头或者视觉,那么自动驾驶的问题就解决了。如果你没有解决视觉问题,问题就没有解决。这也是为什么我们非常重视训练视觉神经网络,这东西在公路环境下很有效。

CA:对的。很多人都打算使用激光雷达模块。你希望用摄像头和雷达搞定。

EM:使用摄像头就足够让你变成超人了。例如你可能比人类的反应快十倍以上,仅使用摄像头。

CA:所以新款特斯拉上有八个摄像头。它们还不能做刚才展示的那样。什么时候可以?

EM:我想我们还在按预定计划推进到今年年底的时候能够完全自主的从洛杉矶开到纽约。

CA:OK,所以到了今年底,你是说人们只要坐进特斯拉不需要碰方向盘,输入“纽约”,车就开起来了。

EM:对的。

CA:不再需要摸方向盘——2017年底。

EM:对,基本上,11月份或者12月份,我们应该能够完全地从加州某个停车场,开到纽约的某个停车场,全程不需要碰方向盘。(掌声)

CA:厉害了。但是这里成功的前提之一是因为你已经有了一个特斯拉车队在路上到处行驶。你已经积累了海量的公路数据。

EM:但是这里好玩的事情是我实际上非常自信即使道路临时改了,我们也能够正常行驶到目的地。所以,相对来说容易的是——如果你说我在特定的道路上有很好的表现,这是一回事,当然这样它能够做到,但是更好的是,当你输入一条高速路,能够去一个国家的任何一条高速路。所以这并不是只能从洛杉矶到纽约。我们可以改成从西雅图到弗罗里达,那天,实时地调整。所以你假设从洛杉矶到纽约。现在从洛杉矶到多伦多。

CA:现在先不管监管的问题,仅仅考虑技术本身,大概什么时候,我们能够买一辆你的车并且真的双手离开方向盘睡一觉醒来之后就到了目的地,要能够安全的实现这点还需要多久?

EM:我想大概两年时间。这个问题的点不在于你能够以99.9%的概率不出错,因为,如果一辆汽车一千次出行会出一次车祸,那么你可能还是不会睡的舒服。你不会的,当然啦。(笑声)这个永远都不是完美的。没有系统能做到完美,但是如果你说它可能——这辆车在一百个人那里在一千个人那里都不会出车祸那么人们可能会想,哇哦,如果我有一千条命,我还是基本上不会遇到车祸,那么可能就是OK的。

CA:关于睡觉。我猜测你的一大担心是人们可能实际上过早的觉得这项技术是安全的,然后一些可怕的事故可能会发生,将人们的预期拉回来。

EM:嗯,实际上我觉得自动驾驶系统可能至少能够减轻车祸,除非在极罕见的情况下。谈及汽车安全需要注意的一点是车祸是有随机性的。我是说,有这样的可能性,人类驾驶员坐在车里,他们也有可能发生车祸,那是驾驶员的失误。概率不可能是零。所以关键的一个门槛实际上是自动驾驶到底需要比人类驾驶员好多少时,你才会信任它?

CA:但是一旦这种真正意义上的无人驾驶开始实施,对于整个行业的冲击是巨大的,因为在那时你可以跟买得起车的人说,自己坐车上班之后,让车辆自己去,提供类似优步叫车的服务给其他人提供服务,车主赚钱,甚至可能足够你支付买车的分期贷款,所以你可能不花钱就能买辆车。这有可能发生么?

EM:对的,这是绝对会发生的事情。所以将来会有一个自动共享车队你买一辆车,你可以选择自己独享,你可以选择跟家庭和朋友一起使用,或者给评分五颗星的司机,你可以在某些时间共享,某些事件独占。这百分百会发生。只是时间问题。

CA:哇哦。你刚才提到了半挂卡车我想你可能9月份要发布,但是我很好奇,有没有今天可以透露的?EM:我可以给你看一张海报风格的照片。(笑声)这是真的。

CA:好吧。

EM:这绝对是我们希望关于自动驾驶特性,保持谨慎的一种情形。耶。(笑声)

CA:我们看不到太多细节,但是这个看起来并不像是那种小巧友善的零家卡车。看起来很霸道。这是个什么类型的卡车?

EM:这是一个重型长途半挂卡车。它的载重是最大的并且用于长途。所以基本上这是用来减轻长途重型卡车的负载的。这是今天的人们觉得不太可能的事情。他们认为这个卡车没有足够动力,也跑不了那么远,于是通过特斯拉半挂卡车,我们希望证明,一辆电动卡车实际上能够驱动任何柴油动力卡车。而且如果我们来一场拔河比赛,特斯拉电动半挂能够把柴油动力车拽上坡。(笑声)(掌声)

CA:这太酷了。简单说,还不是无人驾驶。这些是需要卡车司机驾驶的卡车。

EM:是的。真正好玩的地方在于电动引擎的的转矩扭力曲线是平坦的,而柴油动力或者任何内燃机车引擎,你看到的转矩扭力曲线都是山峰状的。所以这车动力澎湃。驾驶这车的就像驾驶运动型轿车。没有齿轮。它就像是单一速度。

CA:有一部很不错的电影在这里拍摄。我不知道这是什么,不知道结局如何,不过这是个好电影。(笑声)

EM:试驾的感觉非常的奇怪。当我第一次驾驶这样卡车的原型车时。真的很古怪,因为你开来开去你感觉非常灵活,你又是坐在这种大卡车里。

CA:等等,你已经开过了?

EM:对,我在一个停车场开了下,我当时感觉,太疯狂了。

CA:哇哦,这不是幻想。

EM:就像这样,驾驶这个庞然大物,机动性又让人觉得疯狂。

5 还有什么是电动的?What else is going electric?

CA:太酷了。好,从一张很霸道的图片,到这张不那么霸道的照片。这是从《绝望的主妇》剧照里抠出来的房子。这到底要说明什么?

EM:嗯,这张图片展示了未来,我觉得事情会如何演化。你在路上看到一辆电动汽车。如果你留心车和房屋之间,实际上在房屋的周围有三面Powerwall,同时房屋的屋顶是太阳能屋顶。所以那实际上是一个太阳能玻璃屋顶。

CA:OK。

EM:这张图片是真的——嗯,公认的,真的样板房。这是个真的样板房。(笑声)

CA:所以这些屋顶的瓦片,其中有一些有能力进行太阳能发电——

EM:对的。太阳能玻璃瓦片你可以调整纹理和颜色,可以在很精细的粒度上调整,而且这些玻璃上有种类似百叶窗的微型结构,所以当你从街道那么远的距离看这个屋顶或者靠近马路的位置,所有的瓦片看起来都一样了,无法区分里面是不是有太阳能板。所以从地面上看,你看到的是均匀的色彩。如果你坐在直升机上往下看,你就能穿透玻璃看到后面有一些玻璃后面有太阳能电池板,有一些没有。从街道上无法看出来。

CA:你把它们放在阳光尽可能多照射到的地方,是的这些屋顶更容易负担得起,对么?这相对于完全用太阳能电池板负载屋顶要经济得多。

EM:对。我们很有自信,屋顶的成本加上电力节约的成本——一个太阳能玻璃屋顶的成本将会比一个普通屋顶加上电力成本来的低。所以换句话说,这将是在经济上的必然选择,我们觉得看起来很棒,而且它可以持续——我们有考虑过无限期质保,但是人们会想,嗯,这可能听起来像是胡说八道,但是实际上这些都是钢化玻璃。甚至房屋都倒塌了成了一片废墟,这些玻璃瓦片还会完好无损的。(掌声)

CA:我觉得这很酷。所以我想你可能会在几周内开始推广,共有四种不同的屋顶样式。

EM:对,我们开始的时候推广两种,一开始有两种,另外两种会在明年初开始。

CA:那么在规模上你有多大的野心?你觉得大概有多少屋顶会被替换成这种屋顶?

EM:我觉得最终的话基本上所有的屋子都会有太阳能屋顶。问题是需要考虑大概需要多久我觉得大概是需要40到50年的样子。所以一般而言,屋顶20-25年换一次。但是你不会一开始就替换所有的屋顶。但是最终,如果你快速地从现在推广到15年之后,那时候没有太阳能的屋顶将会是很少见的。

CA:这里会不会因为人们的思维模式还没有到这个程度,并不是因为成本的变化,太阳能的经济效应,大部分房屋的屋顶实际上有充足的光照,足够提供他们所需的所有电能。如果你能够利用这种能源,这基本上满足了他们所有的需要。你可以某种程度上不需要电网了。

EM:这取决于你的位置以及屋顶面积和房屋面积的比例,但是一般而言可以说美国的大部分房屋有足够大的屋顶产生足够全家使用的电能。

CA:所以这项经济活动的关键包括汽车、半挂卡车、这些房屋是锂电池的价格需要足够低,这是你在特斯拉上的豪赌。从很多方面讲,这都算是核心能力。所以你决定为了能够真正的拥有这项核心能力,你需要建造世界上最大的生产厂房将世界锂电池供应量翻倍,用这个家伙。这是什么?

EM:对,这是超级工厂,超级工厂目前的进展。最终,你大概能够看到一个类似钻石形状的轮廓,等到完全竣工,它会像一个巨型钻石,这也是这个背后的点子,这指向正北方。这是个小细节。

CA:最终将有能力生产,每年生产几百兆瓦时的电源。

EM:一百兆瓦时。我们觉得可能会更多一些,不过,是的。

CA:而且实际上他们已经投入生产了。

EM:他们已经在生产了。

CA:你的员工放了这段视频。我想问,这是快进了么?

EM:这是慢速回放的版本。(笑声)

CA:那么它实际上会有多快?

EM:嗯,当它全速运行的时候,不用频闪灯你是看不到具体的电池的,是模糊的影子。(笑声)

CA:你的一个核心观念,伊隆,创在一个令人兴奋的未来这个未来人们在使用能源上不用再有罪恶感。帮我们描绘一下。需要多少超级工厂,按你的设想,才能帮助我们达到目标?

EM:大概需要一百座,基本上。不是10座,不是1000座。最有可能是一百座。

CA:看,我觉得很神奇。你可以描绘出为了让世界抛弃化石燃料需要的具体步骤。好像你建造这一座工厂,造价是五十亿美元,或者可能是,五十亿到一百亿美元。你能描绘出那样的场景相当的酷。而且你的特斯拉公司还计划——今年再建设两座超级工厂。

EM:我觉得我们会在今年晚些时候公开二到四座超级工厂的选址。对,可能是四座。

CA:哇。(掌声)这里能透露更多信息么?例如——哪个大陆?你可以说不。

EM:我们需要考虑全球市场。

CA:好吧。(笑声)酷。我想我们需要谈论一下——实际上,加上双引号。我接下来要问一个政治问题,就一个。我是厌恶政治的,但是我想问你这个问题。你现在加入了一个委员会为一个人提供建议——

EM:谁?

CA:一个自称不相信全球变暖的人,并且有很多人觉得你不应该参与其中。他们希望你远离这些。你如何回应他们?

EM:嗯,我想首先,我只是在两个咨询委员会里形式上大概就是聚在一间屋子里问人们关于一些议题的看法,大概一两个月开一次会。这是我所有的贡献。但是我想对在场的那些因为关心气候变化而争论的朋友,或是争论社会议题的朋友,我利用我参与这些会议的机会为移民问题和气候变化问题发声。(掌声)如果我没有这么做,这些本来都不在议题上。所以可能什么都不会发生,但是该说的我都说了。

6 让我们谈谈SpaceX项目。Let’s talk SpaceX.

CA:OK。(掌声)让我们聊聊SpaceX和火星。上一次你来这里,你讲述了一个看起来充满野心并且难以置信的梦想创造一种可以回收利用的火箭。现在你终于做到了。

EM:终于。这花了很长时间。

CA:跟我们说说这个。我们现在看到了什么?

EM:这是我们的一个火箭推进器从很高的天空快速返回的视频。它在火箭高速飞行的前期阶段进行推动。我想这大概有7马赫左右,运送上节火箭。(掌声)

CA:所以这是个快速——

EM:这是个慢速回放版本。(笑声)

CA:我以为这是个快进版本。但是我想说这太神奇了,而且前几次都失败了后来你终于发现了正确的方法,现在你们已经做了,五到六次?

EM:我们成功了八九次了。

CA:这是历史上第一次,你回收和再利用了着陆之后的火箭。

EM:对,我们回收了火箭推进器并且重新注入燃料继续使用,继续回收,所以这是第一次太空轨道推进器的重复飞行,注意这里再次飞行是有意义的。这里很重要的一点需要支持就是可重用性只有在快速和完备的时候才是有意义的。就像是飞行器或者汽车,它们的重复使用是快速且完备的。你不会在两次航空飞行之间把飞机送回波音公司。

7 火星呢?What about Mars?

CA:对。所以这让你能够实现那个野心勃勃的梦想把很多很多人送上火星在大概10年、20年之内,我猜。

EM:对。

CA:然后你设计了这样大胆的火箭来实现这个目标。跟我们解释一下这个事情的规模。

EM:好,你可以看到这里有一个人。对,那是火箭。(笑声)

CA:所以如果那是个摩天大楼的话,那么大概,如果没算错,大概40层的摩天大楼?

EM:可能稍微更高一些,对。这个级别的推动力非常的——这个推动力大概是土星5型火箭的4倍。

CA:比人类创造的最大推进力的火箭多四倍的推进力。

EM:对,对。

CA:这个能做到。

EM:对呀。(笑声)以波音747做比较,一架747的推动力大概是25万磅的推动力,所以一千万镑的推动力,相当于40架747.所以这相当于120架747的推动力,如果引擎都打开的话。

CA:所以用这台设计用来摆脱地心引力的机器,我想上次你告诉我说这东西能够装载一架满载的747,人,货物,所有东西,送入轨道。

EM:没错。这个可以装载一架加满油的747,747上乘客满员、货物满员——可以整体当作货物。

CA:所以基于这个你最近展示了这个星际传送系统画出来是这个样子的。这个场景你描述的是30年后?20年后?人们走进这个火箭。

EM:我希望这是8到10年之后的场景。这是我们的雄心壮志。我们内部的目标更加的激进,不过我想——(笑声)

CA:好吧。

EM:虽然航空器看起来非常大并且比其它火箭都要大,我想未来的宇宙飞船会让这个看起来就像是小船一样。未来的航天飞机将真的会很大。

8 但是,为什么要在地球上有这么多问题的情况下从事像到达火星这样的项目呢?But why work on projects like getting to Mars when we have so many problems here on Earth?

CA:为什么,伊隆?为什么我们需要在火星上建造城市在你的有生之年移民一百万人口,这是我理解的你想要做的事情?

EM:我觉得非常重要的是有一个激动人心和向往的未来。我就是觉得必须要有理由让你每天早晨醒来的时候有活下去的兴趣。像是,你为什么要活着?意义是什么?有什么东西鼓舞着你?未来你有什么期许?如果我们不能去火星,如果我们的未来不包括在多个行星上生活并且成为跨行星的物种,我发现这将会特别的令人失望,如果这个不是我们即将迎来的未来的话。(掌声)

9 你的动机是什么?What’s your motivation?

CA:人们可能将这个事情放在次要位置,或者说这个星球上已经有那么多叫人绝望的事情,从气候问题到贫困问题,而你,你挑了你关心的问题。这感觉像是有点偏离重点。你不应该思考这些。你应该解决当前和当下的问题。公平地讲,你已经做了一些实质性的工作比如你在可再生能源上的贡献。但是为什么不满足于此呢?

EM:我觉得——我是从概率的角度看待未来的。未来就像是不断在的分岔路上做选择,有一些行为是我们可以做的会改变可能性或是加快一件事情,或是减慢一件事情。我可能在这个可能性的洪流中引入新的东西。可再生能源一定会发生。如果没有特斯拉,特斯拉从未存在,它也会因为有存在的必要性而出现。这是赘述。如果你没有可再生能源,意味着你有不可再生能源。最终能源会耗尽,经济定律会引导我们的文明朝着可再生能源发展,不可避免的。像是特斯拉这样的企业的根本价值在于一定程度上加速可再生能源的到来,会比没有特斯拉的时候来得更快。所以当我想着,比如,像是特斯拉这样的企业的核心价值,我会说,希望是,如果它能够推动这个进程提前十年,可能超过十年,那么这将是非常好的事情。这是我所考虑的特斯拉公司最核心的雄心壮志。然后我想到了跨星球的物种和在宇宙中分型的文明。这并不是必然发生的。这件事情并不是必然发生,这非常重要。可再生能源的未来,我觉得很大程度上是必然发生的。但是成为能够在宇宙间飞行的文明显然不是必然要发生的未来。如果你看下太空技术的进步,在1969年我们就可以把人送上月球。1969.后来我们有了航天飞机。航天飞机只能够把人送入低轨。然后航天飞机退休了,然后美国就没有办法把人送入轨道了。所以这就是趋势。这个趋势是退化到什么都没有。人们有时候会错误的理解觉得技术肯定是自动的提升的。技术并不会自动的改进。只有当很多人投入大量精力努力去改善的时候才有可能。我想实际上,技术本身是会退化的。你看看古埃及的伟大文明,他们当时建造了金字塔,他们现在忘记怎么建造的了。还有罗马人,他们建造了难以置信的沟渠系统。他们也忘记怎么建造的了。

CA:伊隆,看起来,听你说的话以及看着你做的这些不同的工作,你的每件事情都有这独特的双重动机,我发现这很有意思。一个动机是渴望做人类长远福祉的事。另一个是做激动人心的事。而且看起来你经常会觉得需要用一个动机去主导另一个动机。对特斯拉你希望有可再生能源,所以你做出了这样炫酷的轿车来达到这个目的。太阳能,我们需要实现它,所以我们需要这些漂亮的屋顶。我们还没有谈论到你最新的东西,我们的时间有限,但是你希望避免坏的AI毁灭人性,所以你想要创建一个真的很酷的人脑跟机器的接口给我们无限的记忆和心灵感应等等。关于火星,感觉你说的是,对,我们需要拯救人类,需要有一个备份方案,但是同时我们也需要激发人性,这是激励我们的方式。

EM:我认为美和激励人心的价值被大大的低估了,毫无疑问。但是我想要澄清一点。我不想成为谁的救世主。那不是——我只是想要想象未来希望不要失望。(掌声)

CA:完美的说辞。我想每个人都会同意那不是——没有任何一件事情是确定会发生的。你脑海中的这些事实,你梦想的东西,你梦想的东西没有人敢这么做梦,或者没有其他人能够将梦想达到你这个能力和级别的复杂程度。事实上你做的事情,伊隆·马斯克,真的都很了不起。感谢你让我们的梦想都变大了一点。

EM:但是当我开始变得有些疯狂的时候,你们会提醒我的,对吧?(笑声)

CA:谢谢你,伊隆·马斯克。这真的非常、非常的棒。真的非常棒。(掌声)

采访中提到的26点

“在接下来的半个小时左右的时间里,我们将花费一些时间探索你的愿景,看看一个令人兴奋的未来”,安德森说,“我猜这会让我的第一个问题听上去有点讽刺。你为什么无聊?”

这是安德森提出的第一个问题。无聊是指马斯克的新项目Boring。

1、 隧道项目(The Boring Company)将在加州洛杉矶开挖

2、 电动传输带运行时速200公里每小时

3. 项目只是马斯克的兴趣,占他平时2-3%的时间。

4. 这个项目的最大问题是挖隧道成本太高。

5、 最终目的是建成一个3D通道网络,缓解道路地面拥堵。

6、隧道建成后收费通行。

7、马斯克认为飞行汽车还不成熟。

8、 特斯拉研发自动驾驶,专注做好摄像头的图像分析。

9.2017年年底,特斯拉自动驾驶车就能从洛杉矶开到纽约,中间人类不用做任何干预。

10. 但即使到那时候,自动驾驶的安全性依然是个问题。

11. 以及,自动驾驶并不能改善交通拥堵状况

12. 特斯拉未来会提供Uber那样的共享服务

13. 特斯拉电动卡车Semi,是一辆重型、长程电动卡车

14. 特斯拉的目标是让它的动力超过任何汽油卡车,它现在的动力强到可以把汽油卡车拖上坡

15. Semi原型车已经造出来了,马斯克在公司停车试驾过,说驾驶感很轻快,开着不像一辆重型卡车。

16. 平价版四门轿车Model 3 2017年7月投产。

17. 目前,大多数北美独栋别墅和联排别墅的屋顶有足够的面积放置太阳能瓦片来为整幢房子供电。

18. 做太阳能生意的SolarCity,打算给房子造新屋顶。

19. SolarCity已经做了两套屋顶原型产品,已经出来一个原型了,第二个2018年年初问世。

20. 一般美国别墅屋顶的瓦片每20-25年换一次,马斯克估算新型太阳能屋顶普及大概要40-50年。

21. 超级工厂Gigafactory一年生产100兆瓦时的电池。

22. 如果全球转向清洁能源,大概需要100间超级工厂。

23. 今年晚些时候,马斯克将宣布4处超级工厂选址,不会只在美国。

24. SpaceX新火箭的推力,比人类目前推理最大的火箭土星V大四倍。

25. 新火箭高度超过40层楼高(按一楼4.2米计算,大约168米)。

26. 这枚火箭计划未来8-10年造出,公司内部的时间目标会更近。

2

Anjan Chatterjee用进化心理学和认知神经科学来研究自然界最吸引人的概念之一:美。

那么大脑是如何判断美丑的呢,为什么将线条、颜色、形式做某些配置之后就能感动到我们?让我们一起来看看这次精彩的演讲吧!

根据马洛斯的需求层次分析,“美”应该是属于人类比较靠上的需求层次。生存和安全等基本要求被满足后,才会涉及到较为抽象的“美”。但其实根据研究表明,对美的鉴别和欣赏,是如同吃喝和性欲一样的人类本能。即使你的大脑在进行别种任务的时候(例如判断两张不同的照片是否为同一个人),大脑仍会自动的判断对象是否“美”。从这个意义上说,每个人都是“外貌协会”成员。

3

Megan Phelps-Roper生长在一个可以被称之为“邪教”的组织,Westboro Baptist Church。从5岁起就跟着父母和长辈,举着她读不懂的抗议牌,参加游行示威。当她试图通过网络宣传“教义”时,却慢慢对从小接受的观念产生了怀疑,进而与其决裂。

作为没有什么信仰的人,固然是无法完全理解宗教。但无论什么信仰,总应以善和爱为本,而非仇恨。

4

沙鲁克汗:关于人性、名声和爱

https://www.ted.com/talks/shah_rukh_khan_thoughts_on_humanity_fame_and_love

5

ANIL SETH:大脑如何塑造你认知的现实?

https://www.ted.com/talks/anil_seth_how_your_brain_hallucinates_your_conscious_reality

6

EMILY ESFAHANI SMITH:快乐不是人生的全部

https://www.ted.com/talks/emily_esfahani_smith_there_s_more_to_life_than_being_happy

7

JOSEPH REDMON:电脑如何实时识别物体?

https://www.ted.com/talks/joseph_redmon_how_a_computer_learns_to_recognize_objects_instantly

8

ADAM GRANT:你是“贡献者”还是“索取者”?

https://www.ted.com/talks/adam_grant_are_you_a_giver_or_a_taker

9

GIULIA ENDERS:人体肠道神奇的运作

https://www.ted.com/talks/giulia_enders_the_surprisingly_charming_science_of_our_gut

10

ADAM ALTER:盯着屏幕一整天,可能是你生活不开心的原因

https://www.ted.com/talks/adam_alter_why_our_screens_make_us_less_happy

你也可以乘坐电梯观看全部:

https://www.ted.com/playlists/608/most_popular_ted_talks_of_2017返回搜狐,查看更多

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